中国原油进口风险度以及对国内不同区域的影响分析     

周尚意  张晶 《世界地理研究》2012,(1):17-25

1993年中国开始从原油输出国变为原油输入国,到2010年,中国的原油进口依赖度高达53%。原油进口来源国的社会经济稳定性、原油运输线路的安全性影响到中国原油进口的安全性。本文根据ITIRI的综合国际贸易投资风险指数和原油运输线路的安全性,设计了中国从其主要原油进口来源国进口原油的风险指数。然后分析了中国各省级行政区对原油进口消费的依赖度,中国六个大区石化工业和八个石油化工基地对进口原油的依赖程度。从而分析了它们对进口原油风险的敏感度。本研究的结论是:第一,中国重要的原油进口来源国比较集中,且集中在社会经济不十分稳定的国家。第二,原油进口风险对沿海地区经济的影响远高于对内陆地区的影响。第三,沪宁杭、琼粤闽和长江中游石化基地是受原油进口风险影响最大的三个基地。根据这些结论,本文提出两方面建议:第一,建议中国原油进口来源与运输方式尽量多元化,以规避风险。第二,中国原油战略储备基地应考虑对原油进口风险敏感度大的地区。  相似文献   

都汶公路沿线泥石流危险性评价     

韩用顺  黄鹏  朱颖彦  孔亚平  胡凯衡  李龙伟 《山地学报》2012,(3):328-335

汶川地震诱发的次生泥石流灾害,已成为灾区防灾减灾工作的突出问题和灾后恢复重建的重要制约因素之一,泥石流危险性评价是泥石流灾害风险管理的核心基础技术。以都汶公路沿线的31条泥石流沟为研究对象,通过野外考察、遥感图像的解译、查阅相关文献资料等手段获取研究区泥石流沟的基础数据,通过选取地质、地形、气象、水文指标,并利用主成分分析法对关键因子进行筛选和灰色系统模型进行权重的确定,建立泥石流危险性评价模型,计算得到每条沟的泥石流危险度值。评价结果表明:公路沿线31条泥石流沟处于不同泥石流危险等级:极高危险占23%,高危险占35%,中度危险占13%,轻度危险占29%;其中红椿沟、肖家沟、烧房沟等沟属于泥石流极高危险沟道,高家沟、牛圈沟等属于高度危险沟道,公路选线须采取避让或充分的防治对策。  相似文献   

帕隆藏布流域然乌-培龙段冰湖溃决危险性评估     

柳金峰  程尊兰  陈晓清 《山地学报》2012,(3):369-377

西藏帕隆藏布流域内发育了我国境内最大的海洋性冰川群,冰湖星罗棋布,是遭受冰湖溃决危害的典型区域。以帕隆藏布流域然乌-培龙段的冰湖为研究对象,在分析其环境背景的原则上,通过遥感解译,分析研究区冰湖的分布现状;在基于指标容易获取的基础上,从冰川特征、冰湖特征和下游沟道特征3个类别选取了8个冰湖溃决危险性评估指标,并利用模糊物元可拓性理论对研究区的冰湖溃决危险性进行综合评估。通过评估,研究区130个冰湖中,高度危险的有18个,占总数的13.85%;中度危险的有36个,占总数的27.69%;低度危险的有76个,占总数的58.46%;高度危险的冰湖主要集中分布在然乌-松宗区段内。  相似文献   

Field Work in the Classroom     

《The Journal of geography》2012,111(2):54-58

To make sense of spatial data, information and concepts strong geographic literacy skills are a prerequisite, yet existing studies suggest a global decline in these skills. Current geographic tools predominantly focus on mapping tasks that do not necessarily lead to an understanding of the broader geographic relevance of location. This article argues that in order to improve geographic literacy exercises should test an understanding of location and employ techniques to correct deficiencies. To support this argument this study offers evidence on the effectiveness of online quizzes in improving geographic literacy skills of first-year undergraduate geography students.  相似文献   

A Proposal for Assessment in Geography Education     

《The Journal of geography》2012,111(4-5):226-232

Abstract

The geographic skills, as outlined in Geography for Life, provide an avenue for assessing students' work in geography. If used across the scope and sequence of the curriculum, a common scoring guide based on these skills offers opportunities for students to demonstrate their ability to use inquiry approaches to study geography and to improve those abilities over time and over different geographic questions. If used consistently, a geographic skills scoring guide can also help to communicate to a broader audience of parents, administration, and the public as to what the discipline of geography encompasses.  相似文献   

A National Survey to Examine Teacher Professional Development and Implementation of Desktop GIS     

《The Journal of geography》2012,111(4-5):174-185

ABSTRACT

This article examines the results of an online national survey of K–12 educators who attended a series of GIS training workshops conducted by the authors between 1998 and 2004. Data from the self-report survey (N = 186) suggest new information about potential changes in instruction and assessment patterns following GIS training. The survey provides insight for those designing GIS-based professional development, while simultaneously describing relatively little change in instructional methodology. The survey confirms some classroom implementation constraints from an earlier national implementation survey, identifying a lack of time for teachers, variable skill levels among students, and software complexity.  相似文献   

Spatial Thinking Concepts in Early Grade-Level Geography Standards     

《The Journal of geography》2012,111(5):169-180

ABSTRACT

Research in the cognition and learning sciences has demonstrated that the human brain contains basic structures whose functions are to perform a variety of specific spatial reasoning tasks and that children are capable of learning basic spatial concepts at an early age. There has been a call from within geography to recognize research on spatial cognition in a meaningful way in primary school curriculum. This article utilizes the spatial thinking taxonomy proposed by Gersmehl and Gersmehl (2006) to examine to the extent to which spatial thinking concepts are being practiced in U.S. schools. The National Geography Standards and forty-nine state social studies or geography standards are examined. Using standards as a measure of geography content, it is concluded that while some of spatial thinking concepts appear often in curriculum, others are largely absent. Designing geography standards that address the findings of spatial cognition research may serve as a means of improving geography instruction.  相似文献   

Partnering between a geography department and a community initiative to provide a wind resource assessment for the Blueskin Bay region,Otago, New Zealand     

Nicolas Cullen  Alice Bowden  Rachel Spronken‐Smith 《New Zealand geographer》2012,68(1):49-61

This paper explores the partnership between a community group and a geography department to assess the wind energy potential of the Blueskin Bay region in southern New Zealand. The partnership has provided opportunities for research and is of strategic importance. Year‐long wind observations and numerical modelling have revealed that the hills surrounding Blueskin Bay show potential for wind energy generation. Despite challenges for both parties, the university–community partnership has allowed a successful research platform to be established.  相似文献   

A case study of coping strategies and landslides in two villages of Central-Eastern Nepal     

Karen Sudmeier-Rieux  Stephanie Jaquet 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2012,32(2):680-690

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal’s Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.  相似文献   

日照市土壤重金属来源解析及环境风险评价   总被引：66，自引：3，他引：63  

吕建树  张祖陆  刘洋  代杰瑞  王学  王茂香 《地理学报》2012,67(7):971-984

选择日照市的东港区和岚山区为研究区,采集了445个0～20 cm表层土壤样品,并测定了10种重金属元素的含量;采用多元统计和地统计分析,揭示了研究区土壤重金属污染的主要来源以及与土地利用、成土母质之间的关系,绘制了重金属的环境风险概率的空间分布图.结果表明:①As、Co、Cr和Cu的平均值低于山东省东部地区土壤背景值,Cd、Hg、Mn、Ni、Pb和Zn的平均值高于背景值,尤其是Cd、Hg的含量分别为背景值的1.85和1.38倍,土壤中重金属累积较为明显.②10种元素可被辩识出4个主成分(PCs),PC1 (Co、Cr、Mn、Ni和Zn)和PC3 (As、Cu)为自然源因子,PC2 (Cd、Pb)为工农业及交通源因子,PC4(Hg)为工业源因子;其中Pb、Zn在PC1和PC3上均有较大载荷,受地质背景和人类活动的共同控制.③Cd、Hg含量在不同的覆被类型有显著差异,在城镇建设用地的含量最高;Co、Cr、Cu、Mn和Ni在花岗岩和变质岩母质的含量高,与冲积与海积物母质有较大差异.④来自于同一主成分的元素及元素组合的环境风险空间格局与相应主成分插值结果基本一致,所有重金属综合环境风险的高值区在西部和东部呈点状分布,主要是由西部的高地质背景和东部的强烈人为干扰的综合作用造成的.  相似文献